Across two nights of action in Rotterdam last week, Michael Van Gerwen lost only his second match of the Premier League campaign. MVG stays top of the table but the biggest mover of the week was Gary Anderson with two straight wins to move into second, just one point behind the leader.
Rob Cross and Michael Smith occupy the final two play off places and it’s all to play for as we move on to Manchester and week 13.
As always, we’ll start with a quick round up of the outright markets and while Van Gerwen suffered that defeat to Peter Wright last Wednesday, the Dutchman has actually shortened at the top of the betting and can now be backed at best odds of 3/5 with Unibet and 888Sport. Gary Anderson makes a move in the outrights and can now be picked up at a top price of 9/2 with Sky Bet and 188Bet while Rob Cross is just behind at a best of 5/1 with bet365 and BetBright.
Michael Smith is three points clear of the pack in fourth place and Bully Boy is on offer at best odds of 14/1 with William Hill and Sun Bets for the outright win before the numbers really start to ease out. The bookies clearly don’t fancy the chances of any of the chasing throwers with Peter Wright and Raymond Van Barneveld coming next at the same price of 50/1 with Boylesports and 188Bet.
Daryl Gurney is back even further at a best of 66/1 with SportingBet and our rank outsider now is Simon Whitlock at a mighty top price of 500/1 with SportingBet once again. That brings us up to date with the outright markets so what does week 13 have in store?
First Up to The Oche
The night gets underway with Peter Wright against Michael Smith in what is arguably the most important match of the evening. Smith has a three-point advantage in fourth place but needs to keep winning to make the play offs while Wright has finally found form with victory over Van Gerwen followed by a 6-6 draw with Rob Cross in Rotterdam.
That return to form has made Wright favourite here and you can pick up the Scot at 17/14 with 188Bet. Victory for Smith is quoted at best odds of 24/13 with Sport Pesa while the draw completes this one at a top price of 7/2 with MarathonBet.
Next up is the match between Daryl Gurney and Michael Van Gerwen. MVG had that mixed week in his native Holland while Gurney had an impressive second night, demolishing Simon Whitlock by seven legs to one and recording the most 180s of the evening in the process.
For Manchester this week, the market for this game is a predictable one with Van Gerwen well ahead at 4/13 with 188Bet while Gurney is out at a top price of 71/10 with MarathonBet. The draw completes this tie at a best of 28/5 with 188Bet but it should be a comfortable evening for the Dutchman.
Peaking at The Right Time
Gary Anderson’s surge in form will lead to renewed interest in the Flying Scotsman for this year’s Premier League title and next up he will face bottom of the table Simon Whitlock. At first glance, this should be straightforward and the bookies agree, installing Anderson as clear favourite at best odds of 1/3 with Betway and SportingBet while victory for Whitlock is some way behind at a top price of 71/10 with MarathonBet.
188Bet have the best numbers on the draw for this one at 28/5 but this is another match that should go with the favourite.
Our fourth match of week 13 is between Raymond Van Barneveld and Rob Cross and while he starts as favourite here, Cross picked up just one point from two matches in Rotterdam so there will be some interest in the outsider. The current PDC World Champion can be picked up at 4/5 with Unibet and Betway while Barney is available at 49/18 with MarathonBet. Finally, the draw is listed at 7/2 with bet365 and William Hill.
Michael Smith and Michael Van Gerwen are the men who have to play twice this week and their match will close out the week’s action in Manchester. As we’ve seen in recent weeks with this type of game, not all of the usual bookies have declared prices this far in advance and you may want to wait until Thursday night to check on immediate form but naturally, the market that is available has MVG ahead.
A win for Van Gerwen is currently available at best odds of 4/11 with SportingBet with the draw at 11/2 with Betway and victory for Smith the outside option at 25/4 with Sport Pesa.
While we have seen some upsets in the closing stages of this season’s Premier League, a number of this week’s matches look fairly straightforward. Michael Van Gerwen should win comfortably against Daryl Gurney while a belated return to form suggests that Gary Anderson will breeze through his tie with bottom of the table Simon Whitlock.
By all means look to take a small profit on the favourites in those two matches but there should be some value elsewhere. The final game of the evening between Michael Smith and Michael Van Gerwen could be seen as having some potential for the outsider with MVG stuttering a little in Rotterdam and Smith enjoying a productive tournament overall.
We think Van Gerwen will come through but in a tight game, a Correct Score of 7-4 in favour of the Dutchman looks strong at 6/1 with Unibet.
In terms of backing a straight win, Cross to beat Barney has one of the better prices of the evening. ‘Voltage’ was subdued last week while RVB was lifted by a home crowd but we expect Cross to deliver at that 4/5 with Betway.
Our final tip goes back to the correct score and with Simon Whitlock and Gary Anderson heading in different directions in the table, Anderson to win 7-2 rounds off what we hope will be a profitable night at 6/1 with bet365.
- Michael Van Gerwen to beat Michael Smith by 7-4 at 6/1 with Unibet
- Rob Cross to beat Raymond Van Barneveld at 4/5 with Betway
- Gary Anderson to beat Simon Whitlock 7-2 at 6/1 with bet365